Australia’s weather agency sees no signs of La Niña emerging. | (ऑस्ट्रेलियाई मौसम एजेंसी का कहना है कि ला नीना के उभरने का कोई निरंतर संकेत नहीं है )

Main Points In Hindi (मुख्य बातें – हिंदी में)

1. ला नीना का सिग्नल: ऑस्ट्रेलिया के मौसम विज्ञान ब्यूरो (बीओएम) ने संकेत दिया है कि अभी तक ला नीना मौसम पैटर्न के लिए कोई सुसंगत संकेत नहीं मिला है, जो एशिया में भारी वर्षा और अमेरिका में सूखे का कारण बनता है।

2. वायुमंडलीय पैटर्न: जबकि हाल के वायुमंडलीय संकेतकों में कुछ हल्की धारणा ला नीना जैसी है, बीओएम ने बताया कि समुद्र की सतह का तापमान (एसएसटी) और वायुमंडलीय पैटर्न अभी भी ईएनएसओ-तटस्थ स्तर पर हैं।

3. फरवरी 2025 तक के पूर्वानुमान: बीओएम के मॉडल्स बताते हैं कि एसएसटी सितंबर से फरवरी 2025 के बीच ईएनएसओ-तटस्थ सीमा के भीतर रहने की संभावना है, और आगामी महीनों में ला नीना का विकास अपेक्षाकृत कमजोर और अल्पकालिक हो सकता है।

4. अमेरिकी एजेंसी की रिपोर्ट: यूएस नेशनल ओशनिक एंड एटमॉस्फेरिक एडमिनिस्ट्रेशन (एनओएए) के अनुसार, एसएसटी का वर्तमान प्रस्थान -0.4ºC है, जो यह संकेत करता है कि ला नीना के उद्भव में देरी हो रही है।

5. समुद्र की सतह का तापमान: हाल के डेटा के अनुसार, हिंद महासागर में एसएसटी का तापमान 1991-2020 के औसत से अधिक है, जबकि आईओडी (हिंद महासागर डिपोल) वर्तमान में तटस्थ अवस्था में है, लेकिन कमजोर रूप से नकारात्मक रहने की संभावना है।

Main Points In English(मुख्य बातें – अंग्रेज़ी में)

Here are the main points regarding the recent statement from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) about La Niña conditions:

1. No Consistent Signals for La Niña: The BOM reported that there are currently no consistent or sustained signals indicating the emergence of the La Niña weather pattern, which typically leads to heavy rainfall in Asia and drought conditions in the U.S.

2. Neutral ENSO Conditions: The current state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral, with sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central part of the Pacific Ocean also remaining within neutral bounds. BOM predicts that SST will likely stay within these neutral parameters until February 2025.

3. Potential for Weak La Niña Development: While there are indications that a weak and short-lived La Niña may develop in the coming months, models suggest that a return to neutral conditions is expected by February.

4. US NOAA’s Update: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S. indicated that the current sea surface temperature anomaly is -0.4ºC, suggesting a delay in La Niña’s emergence, which would require a consistent anomaly of +/- 0.5ºC or more over several months to confirm its presence.

5. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Status: The IOD is currently neutral and is expected to remain so, with some models indicating a slight negative trend in the IOD index for the remainder of the year.

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Complete News In Hindi(पूरी खबर – हिंदी में)

Complete News In English(पूरी खबर – अंग्रेज़ी में)

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) announced on Tuesday that there are currently no consistent signs of the La Niña weather pattern, which typically leads to heavy rainfall in Asia and drought conditions in the United States.

In its latest climate update, BOM noted that certain atmospheric indicators, such as pressure, cloud cover, and trade wind patterns in the Pacific region, have shown characteristics similar to La Niña in recent weeks.

BOM stated, “The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral, with sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central equatorial Pacific and atmospheric patterns also at ENSO-neutral levels.”

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### Neutral Conditions Expected

BOM’s models suggest that the SST is likely to stay within the ENSO-neutral range (-0.8°C to +0.8°C) until February 2025. Three out of six other climate models predict that the SST in the tropical Pacific may drop below the La Niña threshold (below -0.8°C) starting in October, while the other three models anticipate SST slightly below that threshold in November.

BOM added, “If La Niña develops in the coming months, it is expected to be relatively weak in terms of SST anomalies and of short duration. All models indicate a return to neutral conditions by February.”

### US Forecast

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the US reported that the SST departure (Nino 3.4 Index) is currently at -0.4°C, indicating a delay in the emergence of La Niña.

CPC considers La Niña or El Niño conditions to be present when the ocean index (Nino 3.4) deviates by +/- 0.5°C or more from the average SST, sustained over three consecutive months.

BOM noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with a weekly IOD index of -0.39°C (as of September 29). Most models indicate that the IOD will remain neutral but slightly negative for the rest of the year, with no significant IOD events expected.

### Sea Surface Temperature Updates

For the week ending September 29, 2024, SST in most parts of the central and eastern Indian Ocean was 0.8 to 2 degrees Celsius warmer than the average from 1991-2020, while some areas of the western Indian Ocean were closer to average. Recently, cooler waters have expanded near the western pole of the IOD close to the Horn of Africa. BOM reported that waters near northern Western Australia were up to 2°C warmer than average.

Most climate models suggest the IOD will remain neutral but weakly negative for the remainder of the year, although one model has indicated potential negative IOD conditions during October and November.



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