AGRIWEEK: Key Insights and Updates – Nov 8, 2024 | (AGRIWEEK – November 8, 2024)

 

November 8, 2024

Trump election could intensify pressures on Canadian agriculture, experts say

Canadian farm and food leaders are considering how Donald Trump’s return to office for a second term will shift trade priorities for Canadian agri-food, Glacier FarmMedia’s Ottawa reporter Jonah Grignon reported this week.

Trump’s pledges to boost competitiveness for American farmers could put Canadian farmers at a disadvantage and intensify the pressures on the Canadian ag sector, said Sylvain Charlebois, Director of the Dalhousie University Agri-Food Analytics Lab.

“Canada must confront a transactional approach from a Trump-led U.S., one that may bring both predictability and hard-nosed negotiations,” he wrote.

A review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), set for 2025 and 2026, will be top-of-mind in for Canadian agriculture.

In an October speech, Trump reportedly said he intends to renegotiate CUSMA. Major changes to the agreement could have far-reaching effects on Canadian trade.

Canada should be pushing for the review to be a rundown of what worked and what didn’t, not a full-scale reworking, said Canadian Federation of Agriculture (CFA) president Keith Currie.

“We’re pushing for our government to remind the U.S. and Mexico … U.S. in particular, that this is a review, not a renegotiation.”

“Canadians need to be significantly concerned” over the possibility of Trump renegotiating CUSMA, citing an unpredictability in the original negotiations, said Grain Growers of Canada executive director Kyle Larkin.

“It’s not only the livelihoods of grain farmers that’s at risk, but it’s really the livelihoods of all Canadians,” he said.

International tariffs are another potential challenge, Currie said. Trump could decide a particular Canadian product or industry has taken away from American producers and could levy tariffs without considering the bigger picture.

“I think that’s where our government, whoever our government’s going to be, certainly has a tough job ahead of them,” Currie said.

Larkin expressed concerns over Trump’s plan for a 10 to 20 per cent tariff, which he said “would have a significant impact on Canadian grain and grain product exports to the to the U.S.”

Tariffs on China and overall trade policy will be “different now with Trump in the White House, as opposed to what it would have been under Harris,” said Farm Credit Canada chief economist J.P. Gervais.

“You’re taxing exports out of China at a rate of 60 per cent which is really high, then you’d expect China to retaliate, which was actually what happened in the first Trump administration.”

“That retaliation actually touched on ag commodities, which led to fluctuation in prices that sometimes have not been favourable to Canadian producers,” he added.

National Farmers Union (NFU) president Jenn Pfenning said there is precedent for Trump tariffs harming Canadian producers.

“What we’ve seen in the past is that Canada has not been immune to the protectionist tariffs leveled under his administration,” she said. “So, while we probably will not be the bearing the brunt of them, I expect they will have at least some impact on how we’re doing business.”

Many of President-elect Trump’s agriculture-facing plans remain to be seen.

“We really, honestly, I don’t think, know what his exact priorities are going to be going forward,” Currie said.

Canadian Cattle Association General Manager Ryder Lee said it would be important to wait see how many campaign promises end up making it into law.

“We’ve been waiting to know, but still we don’t really know,” Lee said. “There’ll be lots of trying to figure out what is for sure going to happen.”

The impact of the U.S. election on Canadian trade with our largest trading partner will change agricultural trade flows over the next four years.

The new administration is widely expected to implement a blanket tariff on all countries. This would have the most immediate impact on agricultural trade, bringing a halt to the current trade in spring wheat, durum and canola oil/meal.

Spring wheat and durum trade to the U.S. is mostly based on quality differences and the blanket tariff would curb trade on both commodities as U.S. processors turn to domestic supplies to replace the more expensive Canadian supplies.

Most concerning would be the impact of the blanket tariff on canola oil and meal trade. Canola oil exports to the U.S. are over three-million tonnes per year and will likely be priced out of the U.S. market by cheaper domestic vegetable oils. Annual canola meal exports are also above three-million tonnes, which will also leave these exports vulnerable to the imposition of the blanket tariff. Canola meal prices in Canada are likely to drop to compensate for the increased tariff. This will reduce the crush margin for canola. If canola oil prices are high this won’t impact domestic crush levels, but pressure on vegetable oil prices will lower the Canadian canola crush.

The impact of the blanket tariffs will be immediate and will generally shift Canadian exports from the U.S. to offshore destinations. Canada may benefit from the U.S. tariffs on Mexico, which would turn to Canadian suppliers to replace U.S. sources if the Mexican government responds with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. grains and oilseeds.

Oats is an interesting situation as U.S. food processors rely on Canadian oats because domestic production isn’t adequate to supply U.S. needs. In the past, the U.S. has imported oats from Europe (Scandinavia) to supplement Canadian supplies. The problem for U.S. processors is that oats from any origin would be subject to the tariff. This means that Canadian exports of oats are unlikely to be hurt by the tariff, which means U.S. consumers will pay higher prices for their Cheerios and granola bars.

 

Steady harvest strains Ontario grain infrastructure

Stew Slater in Farmtario reports that Ontario grain handlers are struggling under the faster-than-normal progression of soybean harvest into corn harvest.

There are no reports of Ontario corn being stockpiled on the ground, but “with the vessel delays that we’ve seen at ports, there’s sometimes nowhere for the corn to go,” said Hensall Co-op grain originator and marketer Berkley Fedorchuk. “We’ll make things work as best we can.”

As for piling corn on the ground, Mike Moulton, grain operations manager for the Port of Johnstown, said the situation hasn’t reached that point, but “requests for appointments to deliver to the port are getting close to an all-time high.”

Port of Johnstown general manager Robert Dalley agrees that it’s “a familiar story” but advances in crop genetics and harvest technology are additional factors. Yields continue to grow and the speed with which farmers can harvest those yields and transport them to handling facilities continues to increase.

Dalley notes the municipally owned facility has invested in more storage, including a just-opened corn drying unit that allows the port to accept wet corn into storage. That added to its overall capacity.

“In Ontario, soybeans go out by the vessel, whereas the corn mostly stays in the province,” he said.

Until this year, a significant volume of soybeans arriving at Johnstown had to be loaded and shipped before the facility could accept all the corn.

Moulton said the Port of Johnstown is taking in approximately 140 truckloads of grain daily.

“Last year was a record year for us,” added Dalley. “I don’t know if we’ll top last year by the end of it, but it might be close.”

If a grower hasn’t forward contracted sufficient bushels and finds themselves with no option but to sell, it could point to a weakness in their overall marketing strategy. But if you’re tempted, Kell continued, remember the comparison between the U.S. Midwest and Ontario — where ocean-going vessels will eventually help ease the logistical strain.

“Yes, we (in Ontario) do get plugged up. But we plug up for 11 days or something like that.”

He expects any price depression caused by the bottlenecks will disappear by the middle of December, or even earlier. “There aren’t that many more acres left to harvest. This could wrap up astonishingly quickly.”

 

Russia’s grain policies help Ukraine secure sales

Russia’s curbs on wheat exports have inadvertently helped Ukraine secure lucrative sales to Egypt this week while also inflating prices for the world’s top importer, traders said in a Reuters report.

Egypt’s state grains buyer GASC bought 290,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender on Monday. The purchase included 120,000 tonnes from Ukraine as well as 120,000 tonnes from Romania and 50,000 tonnes from Bulgaria.

Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter and Egypt’s most important supplier, was kept out of the sale due to unofficial policies to prevent a price spike at home as the country seeks to combat inflation partly fuelled by military spending.

The restrictions, mostly not officially announced, include a minimum export price, export taxes and limiting sales of Russian grain by foreign trading houses.

“Had Russian exporters been allowed to offer realistic market prices, which would be much lower, I think they would have pretty much wiped up the Egyptian sale,” one trader said.

“The Russian moves are making Ukrainian supplies look more attractive, especially to importers in a difficult financial state like Egypt,” the trader added.

A trader in Ukraine said the Russian restrictions had provided more opportunities although the country had already realized about 60 per cent of its potential sales this year.

“The cheapest supplier is leaving, so it’s probably not who wins but who loses,” the trader said, referring to how Russian policies could raise the cost of wheat for importers.

 

EU lawmakers in talks to further weaken deforestation law

Reuters reports that centre-right lawmakers in the European Parliament have made proposals to further weaken the European Union’s beleaguered law to ban commodity imports linked to deforestation.

In its current form, the landmark law would from Dec. 30 require companies importing soy, beef, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, timber, rubber and related products to prove their supply chains did not contribute to the destruction of the world’s forests or face hefty fines. Companies exporting commodities from Europe would face the same obligations.

Brussels announced plans last month to delay the law’s implementation by a year, until Dec. 2025, after intense opposition from trade partners including the U.S., Brazil and Malaysia.

EU lawmakers — who, alongside EU member countries, are in the process of approving the delay —now also want to weaken parts of the law.

A document seen by Reuters showed lawmakers from the centre-right European People’s Party have proposed postponing the law by a full two years and exempting from its obligations certain countries the EU deems to have an insignificant risk of deforestation.

Sources familiar with the discussions said this would likely exempt exporters based in EU countries from the law’s obligations – a move that could further rile foreign countries that have slammed the EU policy as protectionist.

EPP is the biggest group in the EU Parliament, and any proposals it makes to weaken green policies are likely to win support from hard-right and far-right lawmakers.

EU lawmakers had been expected to quickly approve a delay to the law. But the push to make extra changes raises the prospect of more complex negotiations that may not be resolved before the end of this year – when, unless the delay is formally approved in the coming weeks, the law would immediately take effect.

An EPP spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The EU deforestation policy law had been hailed as a landmark in the fight against climate change. The destruction of forests is a major cause of CO2 emissions, because it releases much of the planet-heating carbon stored by trees.

West coast ports shutdown underway

The British Columbia ports labour dispute continues this week, impacting exports at Canada’s biggest port in Vancouver with no sign of negotiating progress, Reuters reports.

International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 foremen began limited strike actions on Monday at 8:00 a.m. Pacific time (16:00 GMT) and their employer, the B.C. Maritime Employers Association, locked out workers at 4:30 p.m.

Industries and provincial governments across Canada are alarmed by the dispute, which is occurring at the same time as a partial strike is blocking 40 per cent of container traffic of the Port of Montreal, according to the Maritime Employers Association, which represents port terminal operators.

Potash, coal, pulse crops, beef, pork and forestry products are some of the commodities affected. The ports also play a major role in importing components for Canadian manufacturers from Asian and European suppliers. Bulk-grain shipments are excluded from the disruption, according to Canada’s labour code.

Pay, working conditions and concerns about automation are the core of long-simmering demands from the longshore foremen, who supervise other longshore workers and manage loading operations in port facilities.

Landlocked provinces in Canada rely on the west coast ports to export commodities to Asia.

Alberta estimates it ships $350 million per week through B.C. ports, with Saskatchewan estimating over $400 million.

B.C.’s mining industry, like many export-reliant industries, is asking the federal government to step in.

“The supply chain disruptions and economic repercussions associated with this job action could be substantial,” said Michael Goehring, president and CEO of the Mining Association of B.C., which represents steelmaking coal, metal and mineral producers.

He added the industry is still recovering from work stoppages at Canada’s two main railway companies a few months ago.

Fertilizer Canada estimates the industry loses $9.7 million per day in lost sales due to both port strikes.

Canada’s Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon said on X on Nov. 2 it was the responsibility of the union and employer to reach an agreement.

U.S. Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points

The U.S. Federal reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points which reduces the rate to 4.5 to 4.75 per cent. This drop in interest rates was expected and comes on the heels of a 50 basis point cut in September. The Canadian dollar strengthened to 72.22 U.S. cents (1.385 C$ per US$).

Hub International acquires Global Ag Risk Solutions

Global insurance brokerage and financial services firm Hub International Limited (Hub) announced Nov. 5 it has acquired Global Ag Risk Solutions Corp. and Global Ag Weather Solutions Corp. known as Parametric Ag (collectively, Global Ag Risk Solutions). Terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

Headquartered in Moose Jaw, Global Ag Risk Solutions provides industry-leading whole-farm insurance solutions, including parametric solutions and weather modeling technology, to help clients protect the cost of crops and their profit. Their focus on the agribusiness and farm industry supports Hub’s Specialty practices by complementing and strengthening its existing capabilities.

“We are excited to welcome the Global Ag Risk Solutions team to Hub,” said President of Hub Prairies Ryan Matthews said in a MarketsFarm report. “They will elevate our expertise and offerings in the region, providing clients with the support they look for as they go into each farming season.”

“We look forward to starting our journey with Hub,” said Executive Vice-President of Global Ag Risk Solutions Dave Sullivan. “Hub’s reputation in the market and the depth and breadth of expertise and resources will provide a strong foundation for delivering outstanding service to our clients and for our continued growth.”

Global Ag Risk Solutions will be referred to as Global Ag Risk Solutions, a Hub International company.

 

Tunisia buys about 75,000 metric tonnes of durum wheat in tender

Reuters reports that Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 75,000 tonnes of durum wheat in an international tender Nov. 1, European traders said. It was said to have been bought in three 25,000-tonne consignments.

One was purchased from trading house Raya at an estimated $353.07 a tonne cost and freight (c&f) included, they said. One was bought from Casillo at $254.27 a tonne c&f and one from EuroAgricola at $253.96 a tonne c&f.

Shipment was sought between Nov. 20 and Dec. 25 depending on origin supplied.

Tunisia had made no purchase in a previous tender for 75,000 tonnes last week when the lowest offer was $351.07 a tonne c&f also submitted by trading house Raya, and then issued a new tender with price submissions.

U.S. wheat sales poor in latest export sales report.

Wheat sales dropped by nine per cent to 374,700 tonnes in the week ending on October 31,2024. The largest destination for U.S. wheat was Mexico. Exports of wheat for the week were a marketing year low at 236,900 tonnes with Mexico the largest destination for wheat shipments. The strong focus of the U.S. on corn and soybean shipments will continue to slow wheat shipments for the next two to three months.

Corn sales were strong at 2.77 million tonnes during the week with Mexico and “unknown destinations” the largest purchasers. Exports during the past week were strong at 917,600 tonnes with Mexico and Japan the largest destinations.

Soybean sales remained strong at 2.14 million tonnes during the week with China accounting for more than half of the soybean sales. Soybean exports remained strong during the week with shipments of 2.4 million tonnes with the primary destination also being China.

Brazil’s sugar exports hit record high in 2024

Reuters reports that Brazil’s sugar exports reached a record high in 2024, exceeding the peak posted last year, according to government data, as the country expanded its share of the global sugar trade due to the absence of India.

Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer, exported 31.7 million tonnes of the sweetener from January through the end of the fourth week of October, according to data from the Trade Ministry. The amount already exceeds the 31.3 million tonnes exported for all of 2023.

The sugar export prohibition adopted by India, the world’s second-largest producer, brought more demand to the South American country, which increased its share of the global trade to around 70 per cent, said consultancy Argus, commenting on the data.

Indonesia sharply raised purchases and became the largest destination for Brazilian produced sugar, surpassing China, according to the official data. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates also expanded imports from Brazil.

Brazil is on track to produce a smaller sugar crop in 2024, but inventories from the record crop in 2023 allowed the country to have a robust line-up of loadings in ports earlier this year.

“With India out of the international export market, Brazil sent more sugar volumes to both India and other places that used to import from the Asian country,” Argus said.

Weekly U.S. export sales

Corn and soybean export sales were very strong for the week ending on October 24. Corn export sales for the week were 2.34 million tonnes with “unknown destinations” and Mexico the largest purchasers. Soybean sales were 2.27 million tonnes for the week with the primary buyer being China.  Wheat sales dropped to 411,400 tonnes during the past week which was disappointing. The primary customers for wheat this past week were Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia.

Indonesia proposes increase in biodiesel mix to 50 per cent in 2028

Reuters reports that Indonesia’s government is proposing to increase the mandatory blend of palm oil-based fuel in biodiesel to 50 per cent in 2028, Edi Wibowo, director of bioenergy at Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, told an industry conference on November 7, 2024. Indonesia currently has a mandatory biodiesel mix of 35 per cent and it is expected to increase that to 40 per cent next year.

U.S. crop report

Moderate to heavy rains fell across the Corn Belt last week, which slowed the corn and soybean harvest. Corn harvest progress advanced by 10 per cent to 91 per cent complete during the week ending on November 3, 2024. Progress is still 16 per cent ahead of the five-year average. Soybean harvest progress moved up five per cent to 94 per cent complete during the week.

Winter wheat planting advanced to 87 per cent complete which is close to the five-year average of 89 per cent.  The rains in the Corn Belt and eastern Southern Plains last week improved the winter wheat crop conditions. The winter wheat crop condition was rated at 41 per cent good to excellent which was up by three per cent from last week.

Ontario crop report

Dry weather prevailed last week across southwestern Ontario which allowed soybean harvest to near completion. Corn harvest advanced by 10 per cent under the rainy weather under the dry conditions and is now close to three quarters complete. Temperatures during the past week were well above normal with highs mostly in the low 20’s early in the week. Highs dropped to the low teens later in the week, which is still above normal for this time of year.

Hurricane Rafael

Hurricane Rafael has moved out of Cuba on Nov. 6, 2024 and has re-formed in the Gulf of Mexico. The expected path of the hurricane is forecast to push westward through the weekend and is not expected to make landfall before losing its hurricane status. The main impact of Rafael will be on the oil and gas industry in the Gulf which is currently evacuating drilling platforms out of the path of Rafael. This helped support crude oil futures this week with the nearby contracts posting a gain of 87 U.S. cents per barrel.

Feeder market holds at higher levels

Jerry Klassen in Canadian Cattleman Magazine states that Western Canadian yearling and calf markets held steady near historical highs to start November as strong demand continued to underpin the values. Optimal weather conditions limited any transportation concerns or stress on unweaned calves. Feed and forage sources in Alberta were low and hay was expensive, with dryness across the Prairies encouraging cow calf producers to bring their calves to market. Feedlot operators are said to be extremely bullish on the live cattle futures for the summer of 2025, with U.S. third quarter beef production by that time expected to be down by as much as 350 million pounds from the third quarter of 2024.

 

Smaller chickpeas leading to lower prices

The size of many chickpeas in Western Canada’s 2024-25 crop is leading to lower prices, MarketsFarm reports.

Jake Hansen, general manager of Mid-West Grain Ltd. in Moose Jaw, Sask. said there was a greater proportion of the eight-millimetre variety of Kabuli chickpeas grown this year compared to the nine mm variety than in other years. With the eight mm-sized chickpeas being more common worldwide, adding to the supply has pressured prices.

“We had a decently large crop from a volume perspective, but calibre-wise, it wasn’t very big,” Hansen said. “It’s not as big as we would usually produce on a percentage of eights and nines.” He added that most Kabuli chickpea-growing countries can produce the eight mm variety well, while only a few can grow nine mm at the same scale and quality. Currently, demand for eight mm chickpeas is not as high as those at nine mm, which is widening a price gap between the two.

“For farmers and producers who have a higher percentage of nine mm (chickpeas) in their samples, they are getting higher premiums today versus those that have smaller numbers in their samples,” Hansen said.

Just like Canada, two of its main competitors in the global chickpea market, Turkey and Argentina, didn’t produce a lot of nine mm Kabulis. However, the United States produced more of the nine mm variety this year, he added.

The price gap between eight mm and nine mm Kabuli chickpeas could further widen in the next month or two if the World Food Program issues a tender asking for a greater amount of the larger-sized variety. Prices may start to soften in February when India enters the market.

“If (the WFP) comes to market in December and January in need of a bunch of nine mms, that would drive the market up,” Hansen said. “We don’t have a lot of nine mms. (No guarantees) but it could widen the gap going into December and January.”

Wheat futures traded lower during the past week with Chicago nearby futures off by 11 cents per bushel. Minneapolis and Kansas City futures were down by US15 and 18 cents per bushel, respectively. Basis levels across the Prairies boosted milling wheat prices by C$0.16 to C$1.35 per tonne.

Corn futures pressured wheat markets during the week as the nearby December contract moved down 11 cents per bushel. Oat futures erased last week’s losses by posting gains of 18 cents per bushel. Cash oat prices in Saskatchewan were mostly unchanged from last week. Cash barley prices in Alberta increased by C$4.32 per tonne over the past seven days.

Nearby soybean futures dropped by 10 cents per bushel to close the week at US$9.95 per bushel. Soybean meal also followed soybeans lower with nearby contracts down by US$10.70 per short ton.  Gains in soybean oil helped offset the losses in soybeans and soybean meal market by posting gains of 0.82 cents per pound on the week. Canola futures traded sideways this past week with nearby January futures down C$2.60 per tonne. Cash prices for canola followed the futures market by finishing down by C$1.18 to C$2.44 per tonne across the Prairies

Cattle futures prices were lower during the week with feeders dropping by 4.20 cents per hundred-weight. Live cattle moved down by US$2.95 per hundred-weight over the past seven days. Hog futures jumped higher during the week with nearby contracts up by US$9.45 per hundred-weight.

 

Weekly Chicago December Corn Futures

Weekly Chicago December Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis December Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City December Wheat Futures

 

Weekly Chicago Soybeans January Futures

Weekly ICE Canola January Futures

 

Trade under the new Trump administration

It is very risky to speculate on the actual evolution of the U.S. trade policy in Trump’s second presidency … but I’m going to do it anyway. The main focus of the Trump administrations trade policy will be protectionist and focused on bilateral/trilateral trade agreements.

The first stage of the U.S. administration’s tariff plan will be across the board tariffs on all U.S. trading partners. This is just the trade hor d’oeuvres before the main buffet which will be the renegotiation of existing trade agreements.

Main targets of the administration’s trade policy appear to be China and Mexico, but Canada will undoubtedly be caught up in the crossfire. Let’s just hope that we aren’t in the crosshairs! The administration wants to renegotiate the CAUSMA agreement when it is up for review in 2026.

The main sources of trade friction between the U.S. and Canada will remain issues in the softwood lumber and dairy industries. This will make for tough negotiations for next stage of the agreement. The auto, steel and aluminum industries will also gain close scrutiny in the agreement given the focus of the U.S. administration. As we have mentioned before, canola oil is likely to face some hurdles from U.S. restrictions on biofuel feedstocks. The renegotiation will be hard slogging and will likely result in some changes to the current systems in the dairy and lumber industries. Chicken, eggs and other supply managed commodities are also likely to be under pressure from the negotiations.

Cattle, hogs, grains and oilseeds will likely miss most of the attention of U.S. negotiators. That is good news for farmers in those sectors.

One of the policies that will have a large impact on trade will be the geopolitical arena. The new administration is likely to cut funding to Ukraine’s military effort which will change the dynamic of the current war in the country. This will increase the risks in what is the primary wheat exporting region of the globe.

Although this new direction of U.S. trade policy isn’t going to be cataclysmic for Canadian trade with the U.S., it certainly will provide a volatile environment in the next four years. Buckle up your U.S. made seatbelt as we are in for a wild ride.

November 8, 2024

Trump’s Election May Increase Stress on Canadian Agriculture, Experts Warn

Canadian agriculture and food leaders are analyzing how Donald Trump’s return to the presidency might affect trade priorities for Canada’s agri-food sector, according to Glacier FarmMedia reporter Jonah Grignon.

Trump’s promises to enhance American farmers’ competitiveness could disadvantage Canadian farmers and increase pressures in Canada’s agricultural sector, cautioned Sylvain Charlebois, Director of the Dalhousie University Agri-Food Analytics Lab.

“Canada will have to deal with a more transactional approach from a Trump-led U.S., which could mean both stability and hard negotiations,” he wrote.

The upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in 2025 and 2026 will be crucial for Canadian agriculture.

Trump has mentioned his plans to renegotiate CUSMA, and significant changes to this agreement could profoundly impact Canadian trade.

Canadian Federation of Agriculture (CFA) president Keith Currie suggests Canada should aim for the review to highlight what has worked rather than completely renegotiating the agreement. “We’re urging our government to remind the U.S. and Mexico that this is a review, not a renegotiation,” he said.

Concerns are rising over the potential unpredictability stemming from Trump’s renegotiation plans, which Grain Growers of Canada executive director Kyle Larkin says could jeopardize the livelihoods of grain farmers and many Canadians.

International tariffs could also pose challenges, as Trump might impose tariffs on specific Canadian products, harming the broader agriculture sector, Currie stated.

Larkin warned of a proposed 10-20% tariff that could adversely affect Canadian grain exports to the U.S.

With Trump back in power, the trade tactics regarding China and overall trade policies will likely shift, noted Farm Credit Canada chief economist J.P. Gervais.

According to NFU President Jenn Pfenning, past tariffs from Trump’s administration have already harmed Canadian producers, and she expects some impact from future tariffs as well.

The specifics of Trump’s agriculture policies remain unclear, Currie commented. Canadian Cattle Association General Manager Ryder Lee also emphasized the importance of waiting to see how many of Trump’s campaign promises become law.

The impact of the recent U.S. election is expected to alter agricultural trade flows between Canada and the U.S. in the coming four years, particularly with the anticipated broad tariffs possibly disrupting the current flow of Canadian wheat, canola oil/meal, and other products.

Tariffs could direct U.S. processors to use domestic grains instead of Canadian ones, impacting the price of commodities like canola significantly.

Despite challenges, there could be benefits; if the U.S. imposes tariffs on Mexico, it might encourage Mexican importers to source more from Canada instead.

Increased Harvest Pushes Ontario Grain System

Stew Slater from Farmtario reports that Ontario grain handlers are facing challenges as soybean harvesting transitions rapidly into corn harvesting.

Though no corn is being stockpiled on the ground, delays at ports may lead to storage issues, according to Hensall Co-op’s Berkley Fedorchuk.

Port of Johnstown’s Mike Moulton mentioned that appointment requests for deliveries are nearing an all-time high.

Advances in crop genetics and harvest technology have allowed for increased yields and efficiency, but the Port of Johnstown is still managing about 140 truckloads of grain daily.

With a potential volume squeeze, grain prices may experience pressures, though Moulton believes any bottleneck issues could clear up by mid-December.

Russia’s Export Limits Support Ukraine’s Sales

Russia’s restrictions on wheat exports have unintentionally created opportunities for Ukraine to sell to Egypt, raising prices for the grain. Egypt purchased 290,000 tonnes of wheat, including significant amounts from Ukraine.

EU Lawmakers Discuss Changes to Deforestation Law

Centre-right lawmakers in the EU are proposing changes to weaken a law aimed at banning imports linked to deforestation. The current law is set to come into effect in December 2025 after being delayed due to opposition.

West Coast Ports’ Labor Dispute Continues

A labor dispute is disrupting exports at British Columbia’s major ports. Limited strikes have begun, creating concerns about impacts on various industries reliant on these ports.

U.S. Federal Reserve Lowers Interest Rates

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to reduce concerns about economic stability.

Hub International Acquires Global Ag Risk Solutions

Insurance firm Hub International recently acquired Global Ag Risk Solutions, enhancing services for the agricultural sector.

Tunisia’s Recent Durum Wheat Purchase

Tunisia’s state grains agency reportedly secured around 75,000 tonnes of durum wheat recently through an international tender.

U.S. Export Sales of Wheat Decline

Wheat sales in the U.S. dropped recently, with most sales going to Mexico, while corn and soybean sales remained strong.

Brazil’s Sugar Exports Rise

Brazil’s sugar exports reached a record high in 2024, largely due to Indian export restrictions.

Indonesia Plans to Raise Biodiesel Blend

Indonesia aims to increase the mix of palm oil in biodiesel to 50% by 2028, up from the current 35% blend.

Crop Reports

Heavy rains in the U.S. affected corn and soybean harvests, with both nearing completion, while Ontario saw dry weather aiding soybean harvests.

Feeder Market Stabilizes

Western Canadian feeder and calf markets remained strong, with limited supply pushing prices high.

Smaller Chickpea Sizes Affect Prices

Lower prices for chickpeas are being driven by a larger proportion of smaller-sized chickpeas in the market.

Wheat futures saw a slight decline, with corn futures applying pressure. Meanwhile, cattle futures dropped, but hog futures experienced a significant increase.

Looking Ahead to Trade Under Trump’s Second Term

Speculating on U.S. trade policy under Trump’s new term is challenging but expected to focus on protectionism and changing existing agreements, particularly with Canada, Mexico, and China. Tensions in sectors like dairy and lumber will remain crucial during negotiations.